Offaly can spring surprise as Brennan sits uneasy on Royal throne

By Kevin Egan

Let’s flip the script when it comes to looking ahead to Sunday’s Leinster championship quarter-final in Navan, and start with our verdict – or to be more accurate, we’ll start with what would have been our verdict, had this game taken place a few weeks ago.

At that time, Meath narrowly missed out on promotion to Division One but looked to be in a good place, even allowing for the injury to key forward Jordan Morris. Their tremendous power and physique across the middle gives them a solid platform in terms of possession in every game, and while there are no absolute stars in the side, it’s a steady group with a solid bench that can push them through to the final whistle of any game, playing at a high tempo throughout.

Add in home advantage, and the obvious conclusion would be that Offaly might fall around five points short in Páirc Tailteann this weekend, and potentially even a little bit more, given how much scoring rates have exploded.

If you were to look for hope, the obvious source would be that Offaly won the last championship meeting between the two teams. But since both sides will likely tog out with only around four starters from that game in Tullamore just two years ago, that seems like a poor yardstick, so we’ll look elsewhere.

And our quest for ‘elsewhere’ leads us to the current state of turmoil in the Meath camp. That turmoil burst to the surface when Martin Corey and Joe McMahon left the coaching ticket with a week to go before the Carlow game. The bizarre spectacle of Meath chairperson Jason Plunkett joining manager Robbie Brennan in the media briefing after that game only added fuel to the fire.

Plunkett’s assertion that the matter had been dealt with and that it was time to “draw a line under it now” felt like wishful thinking on behalf of the executive, given that no answer had been offered as to why Corey and McMahon stepped away with championship just around the corner.

Given that the social media world has been awash with all sorts of rumours and innuendo as to the reasons for their decision, this ‘say nothing’ approach only feeds the narrative that there is something awry.

Brennan himself then went on to declare that Offaly would be favourites for this game, which was another bizarre assertion for a Meath manager to make in advance of a home championship game against Offaly. Given that Offaly have spent just one season outside the bottom two divisions of the League in recent memory and that Meath have never dipped down below the top two tiers since gaining promotion alongside Monaghan in 2013, this game was never going to be an exception to that rule – and sure enough, the bookmakers’ odds have reflected that, installing the Royals as four-point favourites.

It’s worth remembering that every time a manager speaks to the media, they don’t do so because they enjoy it, or that they want the public to be informed about what’s going on within the camp. They do so either to speak to the general public to get a message out there, or as a way of communicating back to players.

So if Brennan is making a public statement that he perceives Offaly to be the most likely winners of Sunday’s game, he’s doing that because he feels his players need to be warned. It’s not like any of the public will take such a wild assertion at face value.

Defender Seán Rafferty spoke to the media also, saying that there was respect for what Offaly had achieved within the Meath panel, and an appreciation of the level of quality in Mickey Harte and Declan Kelly’s panel. That sort of message is entirely what you would expect from a county like Meath. Respect, knowledge, but not fear.

Brennan’s message is different, and it hints at a mental weakness in the Meath camp at the moment. Given that the winners of this game will play Dublin, barring the shock to end all shocks happens in Aughrim, surely he would want to have his team carry themselves like Meath teams traditionally would; defiant, standing tall, respectful but never fearful. Telling his players that right now, Offaly are the more likely winners in a game in Meath’s back yard is not remotely consistent with that ethos, since if Meath do win the game, he has now told them that it will be an upset.

Realistically, this is a meaningful sporting contest in the same vein as an autumn rugby international, or a ‘test match’, to give it the title so beloved of the oval ball community. It matters in the sense that a championship football match against a traditional opponent always matters, even though the winning team will be in the very same position in a little over a fortnight as they were previously. Both sides are building towards the goal of winning a Leinster title, but neither are ready to knock over Dublin just yet.

But for Offaly, who are destined to go back to the relative obscurity of the Tailteann Cup, this is a day in the sunshine, and a chance to secure another win that will feel like a stepping stone in their journey. Meath will get more possession, and they will more than likely create more chances, but Offaly have a united sense of purpose, and a newly-found winning mentality, even if those wins are happening at a lower level.

Meath by five, or more, is still eminently possible. But if it’s closer than that, there’s only one team that you’d trust to have the composure and self-belief to prevail in a tight finish. It’s not the group that has seen coaches running for the hills and that has a manager cutting them down by telling them they’re underdogs to beat a side that hasn’t finished in a higher position than them in the league since 2005. So, Offaly to win by one point is the call.