Political focus switches to possible local by-election
As soon as the local elections concluded, the prospect of a by-election in Laois/Offaly has emerged.
Barry Cowen's election to the European Parliament for the Midlands/North West constituency leave a vacancy as he must resign his Dáil seat, sparking a by-election, one of possibly four which have been thrown up by the European Parliament outcomes.
Although the Laois/Offaly five-seat constituency will expire at the end of the current Dáil, with a three-seat Offaly constituency coming into existence, any by-election would be held for the existing Laois/Offaly area.
The Government can call a by-election at a time of its choosing, though it is required to be held within six months of the date of the vacancy.
Taoiseach Simon Harris has repeatedly said he wants this Government to run its course to March 2025 - though many in his party are believed to be pushing for a quick general election to capitalise on Sinn Féin current political woes.
The smart talk in political circles is that there is little prospect of any swift by-elections, and, instead, they will be put on the long finger, pending a possible October or November general election.
On the other hand, traditionally, Government parties struggle in by-elections, and if the Government is serious about a Spring 2025 general election, some of the by-elections are more likely to be held shortly after the summer break. The coalition cannot risk a series of by-election losses later in the year ceding political momentum ahead of a New Year general election.
Any by-election would throw up a real conundrum within Fianna Fáil with the two obvious candidates Peter Ormond and Eddie Fitzpatrick being based in separate corners of the county.
The prospect of a candidate from the Tullamore area, the centre of the county, geographically and population wise, could not be ruled out either, with Tony McCormack mentioned in some conversations, or there are whispers of a possible newcomer arriving on the scene.
Fine Gael could look at John Clendennen or Neil Feighery, whilst Sinn Féin would also be keen to contest the by-election – though which of its three newly-elected councillors in the county would put themselves forward remains to be seen.
An added element of uncertainty would be the possibility of a strong Laois candidate, possibly an independent, seeking to build profile ahead of the general election.
Just when we thought there was some clarity with the election of 19 councillors to the new Offaly County Council, the political scene is clouded once more in uncertainty.