One TD set to lose out in General Election

Campaigning officially got underway this week in the reunited Laois/Offaly constituency for what is expected to be one of the most fiercely contested General Elections in years.

At the time of writing 12 candidates had thrown their hats into the ring in the five seat constituency where one of the six sitting TDs - Offaly's Barry Cowen (FF), Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (FG) and Carol Nolan (Ind) and Laois's Sean Fleming (FF), Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan (FG) and Brian Stanley (SF) – is guaranteed to lose their seat when the people go to the polls on Saturday, February 8.

Offaly voters will be spoiled for choice with seven candidates from the Faithful County running. In addition to the three incumbent TDs, Cllr John Leahy (Ind) from Kilcormac, Cllr Ken Smollen (The Irish Democratic Party) from Tullamore, Cllr Peter Ormond (FF) from Shinrone and Senator Pippa Hackett (Green Party) from Geashill have all declared as candidates.

Laois voters on the other hand have, as of Thursday afternoon, had five candidates to choose from with only Fianna Fail's Pauline Flanagan and People Before Profit's Sean Tynan, both from Portlaoise, joining the county's three sitting TDs on the ballot sheet.

Separated by the Electoral Commission before the 2016 General Election, Laois Offaly has been reunited, albeit with more than 12,000 voters from the Portarlington area (including almost 2,500 from Offaly) moving to the now four seat Kildare South constituency. The voters in Tipperary who were moved to the Offaly constituency before 2016 have returned to Tipperary North.

What impact the redrawing of the electorally boundaries will have on the prospects of the candidates remains to be seen.

Observers believe hat it would be a huge shock if incumbent Fianna Fail duo of Barry Cowen and Sean Fleming, as well as Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan failed to retain their seats, despite the Fine Gael man's central role in the RIC/DMP commemoration debacle. Although it's thought that he will be one of the worst affected by the almost 10,000 Laois votes moving to South Kildare, Sinn Fein's Brian Stanley is also expected to poll well.

Many are predicting that the final two sitting TDs Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (FG) and Carol Nolan (Ind) face a battle to retain their seats. However, Fine Gael will be hoping that transfers from Minister Flanagan and other Offaly candidates will get Corcoran Kennedy over the line.

After making history last summer by becoming the first Green Party candidate to be elected to Offaly County Council, the performance of the now Senator Pippa Hackett will be closely watched by her fellow candidates.

Another candidate that is expected to be in the mix for last seats is Cllr John Leahy, now running as an Independent after resigning as the leader of Renua following last year's local elections.

The Kilcormac native narrowly lost out to Carol Nolan for the last seat in 2016 and will fancy his chances of finally securing a Dail seat at his third attempt.

With Fianna Fail running four candidates in the constituency many believe, that Cllr Peter Ormond from Shinrone could be elected to the 33rd Dail, especially on foot of the Cllr John Foley's decision not to run this time out which seen as a boost to the party,  but of course vote management here will be key.

Cllr Ken Smollen of the Irish Democratic Party secured just under 1,000 votes in 2016 but his profile has risen significantly in the intervening four years due to this work as food poverty activist and his election to Offaly County Council last year.

Although he says that he will be doing no canvassing as he spends almost 100 hours a week delivering food packages to households the Midlands, the retired Garda is expected to poll significantly better this time around.